Mom's Grandfather, part 2
As described in a recent post, my biological great-grandfather is not who we thought he was. Once that was established, I wanted to find out who this mystery man was.
Luckily, my mom has tested because her results yield more matches on this line than mine. In fact, now that both my parents have tested, I am fairly confident that I really didn't need to test and nor do my siblings. But I won't stop them! My next people to test are my mom's siblings. Definitely a high priority. I also should probably test my mom with 23andme. There may be some relevant cousins that have tested there.
My mom's closest match on the NPE (non-paternal event) line is a cousin that shares 398 centimorgans (cM). Ancestry estimates her relationship as second cousin (2C). To get a more accurate estimate, I always refer to resources outside of Ancestry. One DNA genealogy guru, Blaine Bettinger, has published a relationship chart that notes the average cM found for each relationship, along with the minimum and maximum. This information was gathered from thousands of real people like me submitting the actual cM shared with actual known relationships. I save the most recent version of this document to my desktop. A newish tool from dnapainter that uses the same data is super helpful. You enter the shared cM and it spits back what the possible relationships with percentage of likelihood. When you're guessing relationships, you may as well start with the most likely for your hypothesis.
So, this close cousin shares 398 cM. Ancestry estimates her relationship as second cousin. Consulting the above resources, there are several likely possibilities. There is about a 75% chance that her relationship to my mother is: Great-Great Aunt, Half-Great Aunt, Half first cousin (1C), First cousin once removed (1C1R), Half Great-Niece, or Great-Great Niece. There is also a 25% chance that they are second cousins (2C), 1/2 1C1R, or 1C2R. I think Great-great aunt can be ruled out because my mother couldn't possible have siblings of her great-grandparent alive. It's also unlikely that any siblings of her grandfather could be alive. I know it's possible if he had the child at an old age, but fairly unlikely. In my mind, the most likely relationship is 1/2 first cousin or first cousin once removed. Here's a chart (created with lucidchart) that shows the most likely scenarios:
No mater how you look at it, P.M. most likely knows who this man is. It is either her grandfather or her uncle. I have tried contacting her on Ancestry several times with no luck and she has not logged in since August 2016. Her test is actually administered by another, so I'm not sure she's ever looked at the results or the messages. I've tried to find her outside of ancestry. It should not be that hard. For privacy, I'm changing her last name, but this is how her test is listed: "P.M. (managed by Wes/Patsy Mullens). Lots of people-finder websites list others in the same household for their entries. I have not found an entry for Patsy and Wes "Mullens" in the same household. Still hunting. I'm guessing that P.M. (Patsy?) is of the same generation as my mom. Lots of test takers are and a name like Patsy (if that's her name) seems like a name from an older generation. Anyway, if they are of the same generation, the most likely relationship would be 1/2 first cousin (1/2 1C). This means that our NPE would be grandfather to both my mom and P.M.
So, I've struck out with getting in touch with P.M. I'll keep trying, but it's time to move on, for now. I looked at all of the matches that P.M. shares with my mom. I've also looked at results on gedmatch and FamilyTreeDNA (raw DNA data can be transferred to both). Here's another chart. This one indicates several matches and how they are connected to each other (and possibly to my mom):
S.S. was the key. She is related to both sides, the Newell and the Atkins family. My hypothesis is that our mystery man is a grandchild of Edward Newell and Rosella Atkins. I am researching possible candidates and looking at their spouses' ancestors (mystery man's other parent). No luck yet. There is also a huge portion of cousins that do not fit into the chart above. These are related to P.M., my mom's likely 1/2 first cousin, but not related to S.S., C.P. or X.F. (B.Z.A. tested with FamilyTreeDNA). I need to find their connections now.
Next step in this process:
1) Test my mom's brother and sister
2) Continue searching for P.M.
3) Contact S.S. (she's been helpful) and find out her number of shared centimorgans with some of her matches. It may help confirm the hypothesis.
4) Contact R.W. This is a new test result with a shared cM of 147. That puts him in a 1/2 2C or 2C1R range. His tree does not match up with these others, although he is related to them. He has roots in Iowa, so I'm hoping he knows something!
5) Find potential closer relatives and test them to see how closely related. If I find support for a certain son or daughter to be parent of the mystery man, then I would test his/her offspring. If correct, they should prove to be a closer match and substantiate the hypothesis.
6) Test Mom with 23andme
Lots of unknowns and lots more work to do!
Luckily, my mom has tested because her results yield more matches on this line than mine. In fact, now that both my parents have tested, I am fairly confident that I really didn't need to test and nor do my siblings. But I won't stop them! My next people to test are my mom's siblings. Definitely a high priority. I also should probably test my mom with 23andme. There may be some relevant cousins that have tested there.
My mom's closest match on the NPE (non-paternal event) line is a cousin that shares 398 centimorgans (cM). Ancestry estimates her relationship as second cousin (2C). To get a more accurate estimate, I always refer to resources outside of Ancestry. One DNA genealogy guru, Blaine Bettinger, has published a relationship chart that notes the average cM found for each relationship, along with the minimum and maximum. This information was gathered from thousands of real people like me submitting the actual cM shared with actual known relationships. I save the most recent version of this document to my desktop. A newish tool from dnapainter that uses the same data is super helpful. You enter the shared cM and it spits back what the possible relationships with percentage of likelihood. When you're guessing relationships, you may as well start with the most likely for your hypothesis.
So, this close cousin shares 398 cM. Ancestry estimates her relationship as second cousin. Consulting the above resources, there are several likely possibilities. There is about a 75% chance that her relationship to my mother is: Great-Great Aunt, Half-Great Aunt, Half first cousin (1C), First cousin once removed (1C1R), Half Great-Niece, or Great-Great Niece. There is also a 25% chance that they are second cousins (2C), 1/2 1C1R, or 1C2R. I think Great-great aunt can be ruled out because my mother couldn't possible have siblings of her great-grandparent alive. It's also unlikely that any siblings of her grandfather could be alive. I know it's possible if he had the child at an old age, but fairly unlikely. In my mind, the most likely relationship is 1/2 first cousin or first cousin once removed. Here's a chart (created with lucidchart) that shows the most likely scenarios:
So, I've struck out with getting in touch with P.M. I'll keep trying, but it's time to move on, for now. I looked at all of the matches that P.M. shares with my mom. I've also looked at results on gedmatch and FamilyTreeDNA (raw DNA data can be transferred to both). Here's another chart. This one indicates several matches and how they are connected to each other (and possibly to my mom):
S.S. was the key. She is related to both sides, the Newell and the Atkins family. My hypothesis is that our mystery man is a grandchild of Edward Newell and Rosella Atkins. I am researching possible candidates and looking at their spouses' ancestors (mystery man's other parent). No luck yet. There is also a huge portion of cousins that do not fit into the chart above. These are related to P.M., my mom's likely 1/2 first cousin, but not related to S.S., C.P. or X.F. (B.Z.A. tested with FamilyTreeDNA). I need to find their connections now.
Next step in this process:
1) Test my mom's brother and sister
2) Continue searching for P.M.
3) Contact S.S. (she's been helpful) and find out her number of shared centimorgans with some of her matches. It may help confirm the hypothesis.
4) Contact R.W. This is a new test result with a shared cM of 147. That puts him in a 1/2 2C or 2C1R range. His tree does not match up with these others, although he is related to them. He has roots in Iowa, so I'm hoping he knows something!
5) Find potential closer relatives and test them to see how closely related. If I find support for a certain son or daughter to be parent of the mystery man, then I would test his/her offspring. If correct, they should prove to be a closer match and substantiate the hypothesis.
6) Test Mom with 23andme
Lots of unknowns and lots more work to do!
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